The writing is on the wall, and it says XMPP. The battle for UC has moved firmly into the mobile space, as has a large portion of many software based solutions.
If you look around the industry at those leading in the mobility drive, clearly both Google and Apple are the major players. Both support instant messaging, and both implementations use XMPP. (This includes iChat and iMessage and I believe also Facetime)
Twitter uses XMPP, as does Facebook for chat… IBM is on the XMPP bandwagon as well… So, it really seems to me we have a winner here. (I stopped looking, because it’s everywhere)
Cisco bought Jabber a while back and has been deeply integrating XMPP as an IM protocol into all our clients, as well as into systems as a messaging bus (Quad being a good example of using it for notifications). So another major player is using XMPP.
Speaking of clients, on the XMPP official site 91 clients are listed here, thou I know the Cisco Jabber clients aren’t listed… So it’s probably well over 100…
Being the “Me too” laggards that they are, I would be willing to bet that Microsoft will convert Lync to XMPP soon as well.
The result: A near global standard for Instant messaging and presence, with near ubiquitous coverage, boatloads of clients and libraries, and finally the end to fragmented IM.
Throw your federations away and rejoice! I, for one will be hosting a few of the Jabber guys when it happens.